![]() ![]() With Ian experiencing a high 20-30 knots of wind shear on Tuesday evening, it is possible that the high wind shear will be able to breach the eyewall during the ERC and significantly weaken the hurricane. Once the ERC is complete (which can take up to a day, although Tuesday night’s ERC was proceeding quickly), Ian is likely to resume intensifying. The end result of this process is likely to be that the inner eyewall collapses, the peak winds of the hurricane decrease, and the area covered by hurricane-force winds expands, thereby increasing the storm surge potential of the hurricane. Aircraft and radar observations on Tuesday evening showed that Ian appeared to be undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC), with an outer eyewall of larger diameter competing with the inner eyewall for dominance. Reconnaissance aircraft found that its central pressure had dropped to 947 millibars. Ian was packing top sustained winds of 120 mph as of 8 p.m. (Image credit: Mark Nissenbaum, Florida State University) The intensity outlook through landfall Hurricane Ian’s rains as detected by National Weather Service radar in Key West, Florida, at 2243Z (6:43 p.m. The cone is not designed to show when there is a unusually high level of uncertainty with a particular storm’s landfall location, as is the case with Ian. It’s worth noting that the cone is based on the historical track errors for each tropical cyclone over the preceding five years, and the width of the cone is set such that hurricanes can be expected to stray outside the cone about one-third of the time. This unusually large warning area is even broader than the “cone of uncertainty,” a sign of how the coastal geometry combined with Ian’s track makes this landfall forecast especially challenging. The promise he showed in those areas in that film is not in evidence here.As of Tuesday evening, hurricane warnings extended from the Anclote River near Tarpon Springs, north of Tampa, south to Chokolosee, on the west edge of the Everglades. Time will tell whether Ben Affleck is as good in those last two departments as ARGO suggested he might be. DIRTY HARRY, UNFORGIVEN,GRAN TORINO etc: who could be better? By contrast, there are many young actors who could have played the lead in LIVE BY NIGHT, and many writers who could have delivered a better screenplay, especially when guided by a strong producer and director. But Eastwood the director usually casts Eastwood the actor brilliantly. It's instructive to compare Ben Affleck to Clint Eastwood, who also has a limited - maybe even more limited - range as an actor. His director clearly couldn't get anything else out of him. In LIVE BY NIGHT he is serviceable, nothing more. His best film performance is his self-parodying turn in 'SHAKESPEARE IN LOVE'. Affleck is more a male model than an actor: in James Bond terms, he's a George Lazenby rather than a Daniel Craig. Mr Affleck's performances lack depth - compare and contrast those of this amazing brother Casey. And there is a very large dose of it here. Mr Affleck's persona is always of a handsome man who knows he's handsome, and who is very pleased with himself about it. ![]() ![]() Or put it in its current form on Netflix as a two-part drama. The producer and/or the director needed to tell the writer to put it through another draft. I read that an entire strand of the book was removed for the purposes of the film, but this was not enough. But overall, there is a sense of the director being in thrall to the screenplay. Within scenes there's a reassuring sense of control of pace. As a director of actors Mr Affleck is strong: he elicits particularly striking work from Chris Messina, Elle Fanning, Remo Girone and Sienna Miller. There are excellent action sequences, such as an exciting car-chase and a final shoot-out. Also, it feels as though the adaptation from Dennis Lehane's novel has not sufficiently transformed what was on the page into cinematic story-telling. There's an expert team on both sides of the camera. Let's look at those contributions one by one. Producer, director, writer and lead actor: Ben Affleck. ![]()
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